What does the future hold?

A flurry of recent writings addresses western political and economic decline. Culture may follow this downward path, but is often motivated by distress in other parts of society. Some of Picasso’s paintings dealt with the Spanish Civil War, and during WW1 war artists and poets flourished, including some of Canada’s Group of Seven painters. Jackson and Varley were official war artists

 

Francis Fukuyama is the author of Political Order and Political Decay dealing mainly with the West but also with other parts of the world. George Friedman in Flashpoints focuses on emerging problems in Europe and points east. China, Japan, Africa and Latin America have their troubles too which could upset world order, that is, if one exists.

 

Another frame of reference is to compare the present with previous periods of imperial influence. The most recent one, Pax Americana, which is now in decline, was preceded by others including Pax Romana (27BC to 180AD), and more recently Pax Britannica from 1815 to 1914. None of these encompass long periods of world history. After the defeat of Napoleon at the Battle of Waterloo (1815), Britain increased its global power until it weakened in the post WW1 era to be replaced by the rise of American influence.

The end of WW2 marked the beginning of Pax Americana when the US became the sole world power confronted by the Soviet Union in a nuclear stalemate until the latter fragmented after 1989. At that time the Washington Consensus of democracy and capitalism was proclaimed as the dominant organizing force for national economies. If some did not have it yet, they would progress in this direction. Unfortunately events have not turned out exactly as prescribed. Stress fractures have appeared in existing capitalist systems. Those which appeared to be progressing in the right direction have hit speed bumps or been diverted from their desired destination.

 

Indices now measure not only national economic growth but the democratic freedoms or the lack thereof. The economic prosperity of countries, especially in Asia, like China, India and Indonesia is on the rise but democratic freedoms are restricted in places like China, Hong Kong (now part of China), Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand. All hold elections but conditions place limits on freedoms regarded as necessary for full blown democracy.

 

I suspect that terms like democracy and capitalism need to be redefined or even replaced, as they have lost meaning when a country like North Korea labels itself The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. Capitalism too comes in many forms with various mixtures of government and private enterprise and financing, with private enterprise often the beneficiary of government policies. Even the most right wing political parties in North America and Europe support measures which provide, subsidies, protection and tax breaks for their supporters. Kleptocracies are today’s nearest approximation of unbridled capitalism; one definition is  “… the term for systematic corruption and thievery by the state or state-sanctioned corruption…with ties or aid from organized crime syndicates.”.

Examples of decay and flashpoints

Today has some similarities to the 1930s, especially in Europe. Then many in Great Britain supported appeasement for Hitler, including about half the Conservative cabinet. Lord Halifax, a contender for Prime Minister at the time of Churchill’s appointment in May 1940, was a strong supporter of appeasement. He was sent as Ambassador to the US to remove him from daily politics in the UK. The Duke of Windsor, who had close ties with Nazi leaders, was also sent abroad as Governor of the Bahamas where he could do little harm in a world devoid of social media.

Today, appeasement is the approach of many countries to Russia, for example over the Ukraine. Invasion of the Crimea took place at the time the Winter Olympics were being held in Sochi. Russian troops entered the Crimea on Feb 26th, 2014 and the Paralympic Games were held March 7th-16th, 2014. They followed the regular Winter Olympics when Russian intentions were clear. Historians may ask why at least some countries did not withdraw from these games.

Russia was suspended, not expelled, from the G8 group of nations on March 24, 2014. Its actions since then, especially in the Ukraine, have been to confront the West, where countries have been unable to provide a unified response, leading to de facto appeasement. Weakness exists in the actions of NATO, the EU and the US, the sole western military and economic superpower.

Other global hotspots include: China in the South China Sea; Greece and its relation to EU countries; ISIS/ISIL unrest in the Middle East, North and other parts of Africa; criminal (terrorist) incidents, often religiously motivated, around the world including Canada, the US, Denmark, France and other countries.

Each of these areas, although geographically separated, have some common elements which require a coordinated approach by countries willing to recall the past century of two world wars and many regional conflicts. Future smaller conflicts may easily metastasize into larger ones – (it did in 1914 after the assassination in Sarajevo)  – with the shrinkage of the world due to advances in communications and transportation, and the growth of the international movement of people, goods and services especially money.

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