Forty days and counting to the US presidential election. It sometimes seems as though the Democrats may be backing a Republican candidate, who harms his chances of being elected and thus favours the Democrats. But Trump’s base support seems not to waiver despite the positions he takes and his manner of presenting them.
Political forecasting has become more than ever a mugs game, but one thing seems reasonably sure, and that is, whoever wins, the circumstances that surround the election will remain. They include a visceral dislike of both candidates by many voters, and the conditions that give rise to their contempt.
If Bernie Sanders supporters were added to Trump supporters, they might be a majority of voters. The problem is that they reside at different ends of the political spectrum so that such a coalition will probably not happen. But it may lead to people not voting, or voting for one of the two third party candidates, and how that plays out is a mystery to me.
Another unknown is whether those voting mechanisms, which are electronically controlled, have been hacked into such that some voters may have trouble exercising their vote. Edward Snowden and Julian Assange are masters at breaking into secure systems, and the Russians appear to have accessed Colin Powell’s emails and those of other politicians. Remember also that the Stuxnet virus was used to sabotage Iranian nuclear facilities. Cyber terrorism exists. How and where it will erupt is another mystery surrounding this election.
As suggested, once the election is over, the conditions remain which have given rise to both disaffected Democrat and Republican supporters. For low income white voters in states like Kentucky and Ohio where manufacturing jobs have been lost, the situation is forcefully described in Hill Billy Elegy by J.D.Vance, a thirty-one year old author who comes from a poor white background, a descendant of Scottish-Irish immigrants from several generations back. I strongly recommend it for both content, and the style with which the situation is explained. Of course there are other problems, such as race relations, immigration and the impact of globalization, but Vance sets out the plight of white working-class families in impressive detail.