Trump plus 4

It can be a mistake to focus on leaders and not on their supporters. Looking back, why did we and most pollsters get it wrong? A few did not, but they were ignored and often reviled by the mainstream media and few listened to them. Some thoughts on this, in no particular order.

 

  1. Clinton ended up with a majority of the overall vote but not enough electoral college votes. The so-called battleground states like Florida and North Carolina went Republican, and the Democrats picked up far fewer senate and house seats than had been forecast. The pollsters got it wrong at all three levels.
  2. If you add Trump supporters to those of Bernie Sanders, it constitutes about half the US electorate. When questioned at Sanders’ rallies, most said that if Sanders lost they would not vote for Clinton, a situation that received little coverage in the press.
  3. Trump supporters did not necessarily like his electioneering performance, but there was no way they were going to support the Washington establishment to which Clinton was seen to belong.
  4. The Democrats had held the White House for eight years and nothing had improved for a large chunk of the population, and so they felt that it was time for a change. The Democrats were past their best before date. In a sense Obama had failed them. During the past two years, he had done very little and was very popular. What does that tell us?
  5. Trump rallies witnessed enthusiastic supporters, while Clinton rallies, especially towards the end were smaller and generated little excitement. This was not reported in the press.
  6. The press became supporters of a Clinton win, and refused to take seriously anyone with a contrary opinion. The press and their pundits ended up looking biased and foolish.
  7. When he was on political message, Trump identified the concerns of a large segment of the electorate and did so without offering more than general solutions, such as to make America great again. They bought it and now await the how. Maybe they had little to lose.
  8. Michael Moore has, for me, one of the more persuasive explanations of what happened and why almost no one forecast the outcome (see Moore interviewed on MSNBC’s Morning Joe). J.D. Vance’s Hillbilly Elegy – A memoir of a family and culture in crisis (2016) is another book worth reading. Now we await similar developments in Europe.

 

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