One of the more interesting pieces on the 2016 US election is by David Remnick, editor of the New Yorker. It is available online at:
The short video that follows it is worth watching as well.
Like others, journalists and non-journalists, Remnick failed to forecast the outcome, and is now commenting on the future, mainly for the US. He views it bleakly but cautions, as Orwell did during the 1930s, against despair.
The prospect is bleak for the US and other countries, but before peering ahead it might be useful to consider the counterfactual. What would have happened if Clinton and the Democrats had won? The outcome would have been that about half the US population that bothered to vote (turnout was 58% of the 224 million electorate, so 94 million did not vote), would be reacting with disgust and demonstrating their disappointment.
- The so-called Republican supporters (now in opposition) would consist of all those who voted Republican. They were Trump supporters and Sanders supporters, both of whom were protesting against the way Washington politics operates.
- This combination of Trump supporters (now on the losing side) would have protested that the election was rigged, and had resulted in the continuation of politics under Democratic leadership, which had held the Presidency for the past eight years and had failed to recognize the plight of many lower income Americans.
- Resentment would have increased and politics become even more toxic with unforeseen consequences at the next election. It would not have been a pretty sight.
Considering the counterfactual is not to welcome the actual outcome, but to use it as a warning for what might have happened, what could still happen, and what needs to change during the current administration, and by the traditional Democrat and Republican parties prior to the next election.
There are now two wings to both parties. For the Democrats there are the Clinton and Sanders supporters; many of the latter said that they would not have supported Clinton if Sanders was not the candidate. For the Republicans, there are those like McConnell/Ryan, and the Tea-Party group like Sarah Palin and possibly Ted Cruz (who may be a party of one as no-one seems to like him, although he is recognized as being smart).
Will the party structures change? I have no idea, but some sort of change seems to be in the wind. The media, traditional and online, will change as people adjust to how they receive information. At the moment, the shock of the results and a focus on Trump, his cabinet and advisers, exercises the media. In time, political and economic conditions in the US and the rest of the world will hopefully receive more attention.
In Canada, there is a certain smugness that it happened there and not here, and some Americans are talking about moving north as they did during times of slavery in the South and the Vietnam war. A fleeting acquaintance with what happened globally since 1900 should discourage a leaning towards smugness.
When your keys are lost, you look under the street lamp because that is where it is brightest. You may need to look in the shadows. The same is the case for the fallout from the election. Some of the dark spots may be more revealing, like the number who did not bother to vote.