Managing your time

Aside from Canadian news I access the New York Times, the Guardian and Deutsche Weller news websites. The latter two provide stories about parts of the world and issues not covered or emphasized in North American news sources. An issue for me is that with the proliferation of electronic news services there is no increase for readers in the 24 hours available to access them. Consumers need to spend time searching for sources carefully and decide which ones to use. The technology provides problems as well as opportunities.

There needs to be instruction given in searching and selecting websites for information that each of us wants, and warnings given that for any given topic we may be missing important commentary. An example is global population size. We drown in information about refugees, global weather patterns, natural disasters like fires, floods and pandemics. One thing missing is the size of the world population which has increased from 2bn in 1900 to almost 8bn today. A planet of fixed size now has to accommodate four times as many people. Not surprisingly there are opportunities for conflict and challenges for those trying to manage global affairs. Consider for example that 8bn people today need a daily bathroom break.

Getting long in the tooth

I can now see an outline of the last lap with reasonable clarity and how I may run it’s course. Short term memory goes first but in my 87th year I can recall most of my life. I am often stumped by the present, what I need to do next, although I may have just been thinking about it. I am told that for most people short term memory becomes a greater obstacle with time.

Much of the stimulation that I get today comes from my children, grandchildren, their friends, and the dogs who are our companions. It comes from what they say, what they do, how they do it, their friends, where they spend their money and how they explain these expenditures. I can compare it to my own life at the same age, although I may well have filtered out parts of it thereby providing a more favourable picture of my past than actually took place.

Young people often have little interest in previous generations and the times they lived in. Today it is strange for me to think of Germans as enemies, although this was the case for the first two decades of my life. Germany is now seen as one of Europe’s flourishing democracies while the US exhibits signs of autocracy. How this has come about is described and explained well in The Tyranny of Merit by Michael Sandel.

Mixing cultures through migration

One sign of changing times is the notice in our building’s elevator that is in English, French, Chinese, Arabic and Inuktikuk warning about the need for facemasks during the COVID pandemic. Previously it would have been in English and French only, these being Canada’s two official languages.

Canada like other countries populated by immigrants is now home to many newcomers whose previous homelands were somewhere else. The challenge for governments is to get those who have arrived at different times to mix on equal terms with each other. Language, religion, education, sports, and many other customs are what separate or distinguish individuals. A role for national governments is to set ground rules so that society can function in a way that allows individuals with different backgrounds to intermingle. Schooling, language, religion, sports and marriage can all act to assist the integration process.

What appears to be happening now is that persons with different backgrounds are trying to preserve their backgrounds when mixing with those of other backgrounds causing difficulties in creating functioning societies. In Canada this is addressed through multiculturalism policies.

An example of the mixing is the case of refugees from the Middle East making their way to Belarus and its border with Poland in order to gain entry to Europe. The refugees claim not only a need to travel from dangerous homelands, but a right to be accepted into sovereign countries. All this creates fertile ground for criminals offering for a fee safe passage to countries with stable political and economic conditions. The process is often not popular in the recipient countries. The issue for societies to manage is deciding what rules to establish and then to enforce them. The latter appears to be increasingly difficult.

Is today a period of peace or war

In my history lessons the years 1918 to 1939 were considered as peacetime covering the period between the two world wars. Later I learned that these years included recovery from and preparation for further conflict. The so-called peace was a respite from active fighting while rearming for the future. The same might be said for the years after 1945 with the allied defeat of Germany, Japan and their allies.

This second peacetime period has contained massive rearmament by many countries, including members of NATO as well as by Russia, China and their allies. Writing in November 2021 requires covering the actions of former countries of the Soviet Union as well as China’s initiatives in Asia and other developing countries. Russia has successfully absorbed most of the Crimea, supported those living in areas bordering the Ukraine and made life uncomfortable for people residing in the Baltic states. With the demise of the Soviet Union, land area was lost and Russia under Putin is trying to reverse this situation.

China on the other hand is over 90% Han Chinese but having to cope domestically with various ethnic groups like the Uighurs. Under President Xi it is trying to establish its position as a world power with investment in ships and planes and claims of sovereignty in the South China Sea. The prospect for civil unrest in China is not negligible.

Although it’s economic pre-eminence and military power is impressive, the US shows signs of weakness as witnessed by its rancorous domestic politics. Where all this ends is near impossible to predict, as have been the post WW2 years. Expect the unexpected is the only suggestion I have.

What’s happening today and maybe tomorrow?

Today’s headlines focus on actions in Russia, China the US and other NATO countries. The events are perhaps more important than the countries because of linkages created by way trade, travel and communications.

Canadians, for example, tend to think that they can be detached from what is happening in the US, and that they can manage their affairs separate from the US and other countries. This has never been the case and is less so today than in the past. The meaning and extent of national sovereignty has to be assessed against a background of trade in physical goods, services and money, and the crossborder movement of people.

The following are some examples of changes over my lifetime.

1. The world population has grown from 2.5 billion in the 1930s to 7.8 billion today with estimates of 11 billion by the end of the century.

•  Over the past decade 2010 to 2020 the number of forcibly displaced persons has risen from 40 mil to 80 mil.  About half may be displaced within their own country while others seek refuge in another country. There were displaced persons in the 1930s but the world population was about one third of that today.

•  The number of recognized sovereign countries has risen to almost 200 today from about 80 in the 1930s and 100 in the 1940s. A rough count can be made from a Wikipedia search.

•  The COVID pandemic started in 2019 has accounted for 5-19 million deaths, and HIV/AIDS for 36 million deaths since 1981. The Spanish flu of 1918-1920 led to 17-100 million deaths with a much smaller world population.

•  World trade of physical goods has mushroomed and is increasingly made in shipping containers. Although these existed before WW2 they have become ever more used for the physical shipment of goods by sea, rail, air and truck.

•  The internet was developed in the post WW2 period and has now displaced or modified many ways of interaction between people and between organizations.

•  While democracy has been on the rise since 1945 in different countries, it has taken a downturn in recent decades. In the last 15 years the number of countries that recorded a decline in democracy has outnumbered the countries that recorded gains. Autocracy is on the rise.

• Other data to note are the growing importance in public life of women and minorities, concern for the environment and the spread of education. The Canadian federal cabinet is now half women

As consumers of information we have limited time, 24 hours a day, to receive and evaluate an increasing amount of information.

Is today a period of peace or war?

In my school history classes the period from 1918 to 1939 was considered as peace covering the time between two world wars. I later learned that these years included not only recovery from but also preparation for further conflict. The so-called peace was a respite from active fighting while countries rearmed for the future. The same might now be said for the postwar years after 1945 with the allied defeat of Germany, Japan and their allies.

This second peacetime period has seen massive rearmament by many countries, including members of NATO as well as by Russia, China and their allies. Writing in October 2021 requires covering the actions of former countries of the Soviet Union, as well as China’s initiatives in Asia and other developing countries.

With the demise of the Soviet Union, land area was lost. Since then, Russia has absorbed most of the Crimea, created conflicts in areas bordering the Ukraine and made life uncomfortable for people residing in the Baltic states. China on the other hand is over 90% Han Chinese but having to cope domestically with various ethnic groups like the Uighurs. Under President Xi it is trying to establish its position as a world power. Actions in the South China Sea, the recovery of Macau, Hong Kong and threatening actions against Taiwan are all evidence of China’s political ambitions.

Some of the differences between now and then are a world population of 2bn in 1930 which is 7.8bn in 2021. People are now much better informed about life and opportunities in different parts of the world, and through a combination of communications and transportation are willing to risk their lives to reach better destinations. Those living in more affluent and safer countries resist their arrival. I suspect Canadians might react the same way if conditions on their southern border were similar to that for the US.

Aside from population growth, methods of conflict using long range missiles, pilotless planes and drones have grown and can be used by terrorist groups. The work of traditional armed forces using planes, ships and tanks are available for use by much smaller hostile actors. And small actors can exist without being a country. The world is far more dangerous today as lethal weapons are in the hands of non-state actors. WW1 was started by an assassination in Sarajevo, WW2 by the German invasion of Poland, but many actions in the so-called peacetime periods contributed to the outbreak of hostilities. Are we in such a period now?

Indigenous people and refugees

Two topics of current discussion are the rights of indigenous peoples and the rights and needs of refugees. Both deal with claims made by people to the land area of planet earth. Indigenous peoples claim that they were there first, and refugees that they deserve access to lands where current human rights are respected. What is the nature of both claims?

The geographic origins of humans are now established as being Africa. From there they migrated northwards into today’s Europe, the Middle East and Asia crossing the Bering Strait into North and South America. Those who are called indigenous people in North America today came from this common source, and certainly centuries before Europeans arrived from Spain, France and England after around 1400 AD. (For a discussion of the forbears of the first people to arrive in Canada and elsewhere see the Khan Academy website, Early Human Migration.)

That today’s indigenous people were in Canada before the Europeans arrived is certainly the case, but they were preceded by persons from Africa many centuries before. Those who are called metis today are the offspring of liaisons of French migrants and those labelled as indigenous people.

Today’s refugees come from countries where there is often violence for a variety of reasons as in the Middle East, Central America, Afghanistan and Myanmar for example. Refugees head towards countries offering stable social and economic conditions. Communications allow them to find methods of transportation and possible entry points to safe destinations. At some stage citizens in safe countries resist their entry. This would likely be the case in Canada if it had a southern border similar to the US.

Haitian refugees coming to the US today are not arriving directly from Haiti but many from other Central and South American countries where previously they found work. Despite there being agreements and protocols for how refugees should be treated, actual circumstances often undermine these agreements.

At some levels the claims of indigenous peoples and the circumstances of refugees become mixed. Existing protocols will have to be amended or new ones drawn up. With over 200 countries on planet earth this is no easy job.

Is retreat from Kabul another Dunkirk?

US and allied forces withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 is similar in many ways to US withdrawal from Vietnam in 1975, and the 1940 British evacuation from Dunkirk of 338,000 British and allied troops. All three represented defeats for Great Britain and/or the US although in each case there were allied troops involved in the loss.

While Great Britain and continental Europe have so far recovered from WW2 and are prosperous and reasonably safe, Afghanistan will be ruled by Taliban related Afghanis who don’t have the full support of their own people. Groups like ISIS-K and Al-Qaeda will challenge Taliban rule. How this affects countries outside the region is unknown, but cells of these terrorist groups seem to operate and travel almost as freely as tourists. Witness the demolition of the twin towers.

The world is becoming as dangerous as it has been in periods since 1900, the Boer War (1899-1902), two world wars, the Vietnam War and conflicts in North Africa and the Middle East. For Canada, questions arise about its ability to defend itself given the inadequate equipment it has supplied to its army, navy and airforce. Consecutive federal administrations of both parties have failed to provide what is needed. David Pugliese in the Ottawa Citizen has reported extensively on these issues. Without allied help Canada would be unable to defend its homeland especially with the opening up of traffic through the Arctic as the ice recedes.

Guessing the future

A view of changes over the past century.

Anyone in their eighties will have lived through and witnessed a number of social, political and economic changes, some major like WW2, the depression years in Europe and North America, and technological changes especially in areas of communications, transportation and nuclear energy.

Here I take a snapshot of how some things were in the first decades of my life and how they are now by focusing on a few selected areas of interest to me and I expect to some others. Steven Pinker in Enlightenment Now is one author who gives a more scholarly treatment of these topics in his discussion of human progress.

Population

Starting with people, there are estimates of the world population, which remained about one billion for centuries, until it started to grow around 1850 reaching almost eight billion today. In my lifetime the increase has been about five billion. In Canada the population has more than doubled from 15 million in the 1950s to 39 million today with very little discussion about what the target is, except regarding annual immigration numbers and intake of refugees.

Countries

While the size of planet earth has remained the same, the number of countries which claim sovereignty over it has increased markedly to around 200 ranging in land area from Singapore and Malta to Russia and China. Not surprisingly the governments of individual nations are affected by the actions of other nations especially as transportation and communications technology bring people together. Many areas for cooperation and conflict have experienced significant growth over the past century. Flows of migrants and refugees have increased markedly, and we know much more about them due to press reporting and communications technology such as the use of cellphones.

The universe

My upbringing included being taught about the creation of the world and mankind as set out in the Book of Genesis. Other religions have their explanations. Yet to take a strong hold were the 1840s teachings of Darwin and theories of evolution. For at least the first 14 years of my life I was shackled to this biblical interpretation of how the world and its inhabitants came into existence. Today, I can follow the lively debate on You Tube between biblical believers such as the Archbishop of Canterbury and those like Christopher Hitchens and Richard Dawkins who adhere to the findings of modern science about the nature of evolution.  My understanding of this issue has changed in my lifetime from God created the world and human beings to human evolution by natural selection as pioneered by Darwin.

Transportation

In the 1930s domestic travel was by foot, bicycle, horse and cart and by some cars and trucks. Railways and steamships provided domestic and international transportation while air travel was in its infancy. It took six days to fly from England to India or Cape Town because of the need to refuel on the way. Today people fly from Asia to Europe for a long weekend. Maritime freight transportation involves gigantic freighters loaded with metal containers which are one of the most significant developments in international trade. Another is the substitution of communications for the order and delivery of goods. I can get my books, newspapers, and recorded music online instead of buying the physical items which carry the content.

A contrast with the past

An example of the difference between today and the 1930s and 40s is the western world view of Germany and Japan. During WW2 both countries were seen as vicious and cruel enemies, organizing concentration camps and death marches for military prisoners and civilians. Today both are considered as democracies respecting recognition of universal human rights. I am not sure when this change took place, but it was a number of postwar years before occupation of the two countries ended.

May 8^th 1945 is the day Nazi Germany surrendered to the allies. Today in some German publications it is reported as liberation from the evils of Nazism and a time for Germans to rejoice. 

“Yet (this) liberation framing is somewhat contentious — because it is unhistorical. Most Germans who experienced May 8, 1945, did not view the Allies as liberators. Nor, for that matter, did Western forces view themselves as such. “Germany will not be occupied for the purpose of liberation but as a defeated enemy nation,” read the directive issued to the commander of American forces that April.” (NYT May 8, 2021).

My conclusion is that it is extraordinarily difficult to predict major societal changes even ten years in the future. Remarkable changes have taken place in my lifetime. The same will probably occur over the next decades.

Is war the norm and peace the exception?

I have come to the sad conclusion that conflict not peace is the normal circumstance with the two being interspersed for varying lengths of time. Afghanistan may be an extreme example but in the 1830s and 1860s the British were driven out of the country. In the 1970s the Russians suffered the same outcome, and today the US and it’s allies have been ignominiously forced out, with a Kabul airport departure similar to that of Saigon at the end of the Vietnam War.

There is no one reason that the real estate and population of Afghanistan should suffer this violence. It comes from both external forces and domestic tribal and religious factors, but location has played a major role.

Afghanistan sits landlocked between Pakistan, Iran and a number of stans, formerly parts of Russia, and historically of importance to both Russia and Great Britain. The Russians wanted a land route to the Indian Ocean, which the British saw as a threat to its eastern empire in India. The British were keen to thwart any such attempt. Similar reasons explain why the British have always fought to control the Suez Canal and surrounding territory.

One of the lessons for me is that peace-keeping actions by the UN and other organizations may only provide a temporary salve for cases of international violence. Will it be possible to control future cases given the technology available to terrorist organizations and regular military forces? What role does geographic location play in conflict situations?

On technology it does seem that there is much available to conventional as well as terrorist organizations but I have no detailed knowledge of what destruction is possible by any side. I am surprised that a virus such as COVID can do as much damage to an economy as has taken place. At the same time I am impressed at the way in which activities have adjusted to the pandemic and recovery is taking place.